A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
